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Past: Who will be elected Los Angeles mayor in 2022?
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An early tally of mail-in ballots showed billionaire developer Rick Caruso leading Rep. Karen Bass (D-CA), 41% to 38%, in the race for Los Angeles mayor. With neither candidate likely to surpass the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, both candidates are likely advancing to a November showdown.
But Caruso may regret he couldn’t finish Bass off in the primary. Instead, Bass has life. When the Associated Press called the race at 10 p.m. EDT, Caruso was ahead by only three percentage points despite spending more than $37 million of his personal fortune.
In the nation’s second-largest city, voters gravitated to his promises to crack down on crime and homelessness. But the runoff could prove tricky for Caruso. Bass is a well-known Democrat and a favorite of the party’s progressive wing with a long history of activism in the city. In a runoff, without other progressive candidates to siphon votes away from Bass, Caruso is likely to have stiffer competition.
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“It’s hard to defeat a people-powered campaign... no matter how much money is spent, and it’s hard to defeat folks who are committed to a cause, not just a candidate. All of us stood strong against an onslaught, a $45 million onslaught to be exact, spent by a billionaire,” Bass said.
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Present: Who will win the 2022 Alaska at-large special election?
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Alaska voters are facing an election unlike any they’ve seen, with 48 candidates running to succeed the man who had held the state’s only US House seat for 49 years.
The first top-four congressional primary in US history is slated to commence on Saturday, June 11, in Alaska’s at-large special election to carry out the final four months of the term previously held by Rep. Don Young (R-AK), who died unexpectedly in March. All candidates will appear on the same ballot with their affiliations listed next to their names with the four candidates with the most votes advancing to a general election that will be held on Aug. 16 using ranked-choice voting.
Running almost concurrently with the special election is the race for the regularly scheduled November election, which will also have its primary on Aug. 16 and will determine who will fill the seat for the two-year term beginning in Jan. 2023. Half of the 48 candidates running for the special election aren't running in the later race. And seven new candidates — who did not file for the special election — are running for the two-year term. Among the 24 special election candidates not in the running for the two-year term are Santa Claus, the 75-year-old mayor pro tem of North Pole, has also said he is only interested in the short-term position.
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Saturday’s vote also marks the first all-mail election in the state’s history with every registered voter in the state receiving a ballot, tallying more than half a million going out to voters. The most recent ballot tally puts the turnout rate above 20%, but it’s hard to compare that figure to those from previous elections.
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“Anything that could be a first is happening in this election,” said Tiffany Montemayor, Division of Elections spokesperson.
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In all, there are 16 Republican candidates including former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R); Nick Begich, a businessman from a political family of prominent Democrats; former state lawmaker John Coghill; and Tara Sweeney, who also was a co-chair of Young’s campaign. That sum is topped by the number of independents running: 22. That includes Al Gross, an orthopedic surgeon who ran for Senate in 2020 with support from the state Democratic Party, and of course, the aforementioned Claus.
Market Pulse: The race to finish out Young’s term in the Alaska at-large special election suggests that Palin is best-placed to win at 45¢, followed by Begich at 37¢. The crowd also expects the former governor to come out on top of Saturday’s primary at 77¢, which gives her a 61¢ lead over Gross. But perhaps all anyone cares about in this race — at least outside of Alaska — is if Santa will make it into the top four! The crowd gives the man from North Pole, Alaska, a 21¢ chance of capitalizing on his name recognition and see his name on the final ballot for Aug. 16.
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Future: Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?
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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has been increasingly expanding his national footprint ahead of his 2022 re-election bid and potential 2024 presidential run.
Case in point, over this past weekend the governor topped former President Donald Trump in the annual Western Conservative Summit’s straw poll, garnering 71% support from participants saying they want him to run for president in 2024. That compares to the 67% that Trump pulled in. The next closest choice was Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) at 28%. The vote marked the second year in a row DeSantis bested the former president at the summit — an annual gathering of around 2,000 party activities just outside of Denver.
That straw poll also comes on the heels of DeSantis running neck-and-neck with Trump in a new University of Nevada, Reno survey asking voters in the state to rate potential 2024 candidates. DeSantis received the highest favorability score of any Republican with all voters — 48% compared to Trump’s 42% — but was bested by Trump, 73%-69%, when just Republicans were counted.
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“There is no real party standard-bearer at the moment, and DeSantis in many eyes is starting to define the post-Trump party,” said Tyler Sandberg, a Colorado-based, veteran Republican GOP operative. “He fights more about policy and less on his Twitter account.”
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DeSantis has made several fundraising stops over the last couple of months across the country, including at a rally in Las Vegas for US Senate candidate Adam Laxalt, a longtime friend and former roommate. DeSantis’ rising popularity in the region coincides with his ascent nationally. But topping Trump two years in a row at an event dubbed “the largest gathering of conservatives in the Western United States” highlights his growing reputation with Republicans in that part of the country.
Loyalty to Trump will be tested this month during key GOP primaries in Western states like Montana, Nevada, Colorado and Utah.
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“People have not gotten to the point where they are abandoning Trump, but DeSantis is saying the right things from an Idahoan standpoint. It comes without the sharp edges, which is attractive to a number of folks,” said Phil Reberger, a longtime political operative in the state.
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We are always crowdsourcing new market ideas from traders. Send ideas to [email protected] and be sure to include a legitimate resolution source.
Thanks for following the markets!
Team @PredictIt
Featured section news and analysis sources include: Ballotpedia, Associated Press, Anchorage Daily News (1 and 2), Politico (1 and 2) and The Hill.
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