Can an incumbent mayor win a write-in campaign? That’s the central question in Buffalo this year, after incumbent Mayor Byron Brown lost the Democratic primary in June to socialist India Walton.

Brown, now running a formidable write-in campaign, is playing catch-up after taking the primary election for granted. Walton may have a natural ballot advantage in being the Democratic Party’s official candidate, but some major state party leaders aren’t exactly lining up to stump for her. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) has decided not to endorse a candidate in the race, while state Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs made a mess in making a point not to endorse her.

As a write-in candidate, Brown maintains the backing of some Buffalo political and business leaders. Walton may be the only candidate listed on the ballot, but Brown still poses a serious threat. He’s also getting help from an unexpected foe.

The New York State Republican Party sent mailers to thousands of Buffalo voters urging them to back the write-in campaign of Brown. Without a candidate in the race, the GOP is supporting Brown in a bit of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” strategizing.

“The mailers went to a broad universe of voters who we believe will vote to stop socialism in the City of Buffalo,” said state GOP spokeswoman Jessica Proud. Other big-name Buffalo-area Republicans are aiding Brown with campaign donations — including former state Attorney General Dennis Vacco and businessman Carl Paladino, the GOP’s 2010 candidate for governor, and the local GOP is part of the incumbent’s coalition.

And it appears to be working. The latest Emerson College/WIVB poll — conducted Oct. 22 to 23 — finds Brown with 54% support and 18 points ahead of India Walton, the Democratic nominee, who is at 36%. Brown is up four points from August. Six percent (6%) of voters are undecided, and 4% plan to vote for someone else.

The poll also found Brown leading among Democrats (50% to 41%), Republicans (82% to 8%) and Independents (54% to 35%). Democratic voters are split between planning to vote for Brown (50%) or Walton (41%), despite Walton winning the primary by seven percentage points. This suggests that Brown may have a base that did not come out to vote in the primary, but is now tuning in for the general election. Of those surveyed, 43% did not vote in the primary.

Market Pulse: What was a 54¢ to 46¢ race on Monday has now turned into a 71¢ to 29¢ race that favors the incumbent Mayor Byron Brown to win re-election in Buffalo despite having to run a write-in campaign. Traders over the last 30 days have kept their predictions close with Brown a slight favorite until the past seven days when Walton periodically led the market on the back of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s endorsement of her candidacy. Launched yesterday, a margin of victory market less than 24 hours old, suggests that Brown is in pole position to win big with the “Brown by 8% or more” trading at 63¢. No other contract is trading in double digits, which is significant.

Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) declared in May that she would not seek re-election. As residents prepare to go to the polls on Nov. 2 to select her replacement, crime is center stage.

Crime has taken up most of the oxygen — and airtime — in Atlanta’s mayoral race. Voters will decide whether to trust a new leader with oversight of one of the most politically prominent cities in the South or return to a familiar face.

Former mayor Kasim Reed is couching his comeback bid on plans to tackle the city’s nearly 60% spike in violent crime by hiring more police officers and pouring money into community initiatives. But his bid to win back his old job has also been dominated by questions about corruption that surrounded his tenure in City Hall. A half dozen of his aides have either pleaded guilty or are awaiting trial on charges ranging from accepting bribes to tax fraud. The former two-term mayor has not been charged, and his lawyers have insisted that Reed is not under federal investigation. But his opponents in the race, as well as some influential Atlantans, say the lingering ethical questions make him unsuitable to lead the city as it seeks to calm roiling economic, social and political crises.

There are 14 candidates vying to replace Bottoms, but most polls show Reed and City Council President Felicia A. Moore leading. Moore has separated herself from the rest of the crowded field with a crime fighting plan that places an emphasis on kids, courts and calls; among her campaign promises is a one-on-one conversation with 98% of all the city’s police officers.

Yet many voters remain undecided, and in recent days there have been signs that Council member Andre Dickens is gaining momentum. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote on Nov. 2, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff election on Nov. 30.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Friday released its final poll ahead of Election Day, which shows Moore (23.8%) and Reed (20.5%) in a statistical tie, plus a lot of people who haven’t made up their mind (41.4%!!!). Nearly 50% of respondents had an unfavorable impression of Reed, according to the poll, which blows the unfavorable rates of any other candidate out of the water. The poll of 779 likely voters conducted by the University of Georgia had a +/-3.5 point margin of error.

A runoff seems all but certain and is usually the expected outcome for an Atlanta mayoral election especially one with so many candidates. While Reed and Moore appear best placed to duke it out on Nov. 30, Tammy Greer, a political scientist at Clark Atlanta University, had this to say about the race:

Market Pulse: Traders are sending clear signals that the race to be elected Atlanta’s next mayor is between just two candidates. Kasim Reed leads the market at 48¢ this morning followed by Felicia Moore at 46¢. Andre Dickens is the only other candidate worth mentioning and his contract is at 10¢. All other candidates in the large field are priced at 1¢. Reed has been the traders choice over the past 90 days as he’s held a comfortable lead over Moore. That lead has since vanished over the last seven days with Moore surpassing the favorite on Oct. 24 and hitting 56¢ the following day before dipping back under the 50¢ mark.

With such a large pool of potentially undecided voters still available, the final days of this campaign will be key in determining the top two candidates and if one of them can get above the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff at the end of November.

Incumbent Mayor Jacob Frey’s handling of the civil unrest after the murder of George Floyd and the crime wave that has continued throughout much of Minneapolis will be issues central for voters next Tuesday. So will the future of the Minneapolis Police Department.

Floyd’s murder touched off a national push to reform law enforcement, a sweeping city charter amendment that would overhaul the city’s Police Department is shaping the contours of the race. If passed, the Yes 4 Minneapolis amendment would replace the city’s Police Department with a Department of Public Safety that would dispatch crisis managers or social workers to respond to emergencies before police officers.

While Frey does not support the amendment, it has the backing of a majority of the city’s activist groups and his leading challenger, Sheila Nezhad, who was among the primary organizers of last summer’s protests following Floyd’s death.