Joe Biden: Says He’s Running for Re-Election, Summer Struggles Hit Approval Ratings

During his first news conference as president back in April, President Joe Biden signaled his intention to run for re-election in 2024.

“My plan is to run for re-election. That’s my expectation,” Biden told reporters then.

The announcement was the first time Biden publicly addressed questions on whether he will make another run for the White House. He took office in January as the oldest president at the time of his first inauguration.

Fast forward to the end of summer and a new national Emerson College Poll has found Biden to be a slight underdog in a hypothetical 2024 showdown with his 2020 sparring partner, former President Donald Trump. Some 47% of respondents preferred Trump, while 46% preferred Biden, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.

The Emerson poll comes on the heels of an ABC News/Washington Post poll out last Friday that found only 44% of voters surveyed approving of Biden’s job performance. POTUS’ job approval rating had fallen underwater amid broad disapproval of his handling of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, including a share of blame on Biden for conditions leading to the Kabul airport attack. The September poll found Biden down six percentage points in approval and up nine in disapproval since late June. And the intensity also moved decidedly negative with many more surveyed strongly disapproving, 42%, than strongly approving, 25%, of Biden’s performance.

Biden came into office with 67% approval for his handling of the transition, but that quickly subsided to 52% job approval in April, held roughly steady at 50% in June and is down to 44% now. In polling data since the Harry Truman administration, only two presidents have had a lower approval rating at this point in their terms: Donald Trump, at 37% in August 2017, and Gerald Ford, also 37%, in March 1975.

Only three presidents before Biden have chosen not to run for re-election after a full single term: James K. Polk, James Buchanan and Rutherford B. Hayes. Polk and Hayes ran for their first terms on a no-second-term pledge, which they kept. Buchanan announced a one-term-only policy in his inaugural address. Biden is not under any such self-imposed constraint. If he walks away, Vice President Kamala Harris will be the heir apparent.

Of course, Harris’ elevation is far from guaranteed. Before Biden’s election, the last vice president to mount a successful bid for the top job was George H. W. Bush, in 1988. Bush’s own vice president, Dan Quayle, tried and failed to do the same.

Donald Trump: The Presumptive GOP Favorite Until He Says He Isn’t

Earlier this week, former President Donald Trump announced planned appearances in Georgia in late September and Iowa in early October as he looks to maintain his position within the Republican Party.

The rallies in Perry, Georgia and Des Moines, Iowa come as speculation has mounted over Trump’s political future. The former president has flirted with a third White House bid in 2024 but has kept voters in suspense by not saying definitively if he’ll launch a comeback campaign.

As Trump has flirted with another White House bid, others have suggested more openly they are considering a run, though none have definitively confirmed plans to run against the former president. Former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) have all traveled to Iowa and other swing states — planting campaign seeds along the way. Other rumored candidates for the tussle in 2024 include Sens. Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Ted Cruz (R-TX), Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R).

Rallies are just one tool that the former president has used to keep his name front and center in GOP voters’ minds, along with handing out prized endorsements to candidates in midterm battles and railing against the 2020 presidential race results. Those efforts have paid off thus far, with most polls showing he’d handily win a 2024 Republican presidential primary.

Without actually announcing his plans, Trump keeps access to his $102 million war chest, which in turn scares off donors to other candidates and freezes the Republican 2024 race. It also means that Trump is free to use money from his political action committees to act very much like a candidate without the restrictions that come with an announcement. If he were to file, Save America and his other leadership PAC, Make America Great Again PAC, would be limited to giving his campaign $5,000 per election. Unable to use the PACs’ millions to pay its expenses, a new Trump presidential campaign would have to start raising money from scratch.

The same fundraising limits apply to other potential candidates, including rival Republicans as well as President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. Biden doesn’t have a similar leadership PAC but has $13.8 million left over in his joint fundraising committee and $4.7 million in his campaign committee, all of which he would be able to use for a re-election effort.

Since his November defeat, Trump and his allies have fanned the notion that he will seek a rematch in 2024. That’s nothing new — prior to his first bid for president, Trump feinted and flirted with runs for president for decades without pulling the trigger. But those close to him say Biden’s declining political fortunes amid the resurgence of coronavirus and the botched Afghanistan withdrawal have intensified the interest of the former president, who is already motivated by a burning sense of pride and grievance over his loss to Biden.

“Trump sees Biden is on the ropes. He wants to throw punches as a combatant, not a heckler from the stands,” said Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), a close ally of the president.

Nearly every poll shows that Trump, at this point, has little to fear from others in a Republican primary. The top potential GOP candidates in 2024 have said they wouldn’t run against him — or have shied away from saying they would — and refrained from criticizing him.

Trump campaign adviser, Jason Miller, declared last week that the chances of him running are “between 99 and 100%. I think he is definitely running in 2024. I had a good conversation with him last night. I’m going to go see him in another couple days here.”

Tony Fabrizio, who polls for Trump’s Save America leadership PAC, said Trump is paying attention to Biden’s “dismal” numbers. “You would think his [Trump’s] attitude would be, ‘I told you so.’ But instead, he is angry because he believes rightly or wrongly that the election was stolen from him and that all that has happened under Biden could have been avoided,” he said.

For now, it’s unlikely Trump makes any official announcements before the 2022 midterms, multiple people close to Trump said.

“If Donald Trump runs in ’24, I think he’ll clear the field, be the nominee and I think he wins handily against Biden or Harris,” said Rep. Jim Banks of Indiana, who as the chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee has hosted almost every potential non-Trump candidate to speak to his group of more than 150 Republican House members this year.

Ron DeSantis: The Most Talked About Other Guy

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) on Tuesday dismissed speculation about his presidential aspirations as “nonsense,” despite widespread reporting this year that he is laying the groundwork for a White House run.

At a press conference in St. Cloud, Florida, the governor said he was focused on doing his current job amid increasing questions as to whether he would challenge former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary.

DeSantis has become a favorite of national Republicans as he has consistently pushed back against mask mandates and other COVID-19 mitigation measures, while keeping Florida’s economy and schools mostly open since the pandemic struck.

A straw poll in July of those attending the Conservative Political Action Conference showed GOP voters ranked DeSantis second behind former President Donald Trump for the Republican nomination while, when Trump was not on the ballot, DeSantis came in first. DeSantis even managed to beat Trump in a 2024 straw poll at the Western Conservative Summit a month earlier and the former president said in April that he would “certainly” consider the Florida governor as his running mate.

DeSantis’ political committee has already raised more than $40 million since the beginning of the year for his re-election bid for governor, with more than $4 million of those funds in July coming from donors in every state of the country. In the last few months DeSantis has traveled to California, Utah, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Texas. Most of those trips have been confined to fundraising for his political committee, but he has appeared at events designed to raise his profile, including a national police convention, a national legislative conference and headlining a Pittsburgh GOP fundraising dinner.

Some of that travel has come at a cost for DeSantis. Democratic rivals such as Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried and Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.) are routinely painting DeSantis as someone who is more interested in pleasing potential GOP primary voters than what’s happening in his home state. And a poll by Morning Consult showed DeSantis’ net approval rating in Florida had dropped 14 points between early July and late August. The poll at the start of the summer showed that 54% approved of the job DeSantis was doing while 40% disapproved. Now his approval ratings are split evenly at 48%.

DeSantis’ comments, though, are unlikely to dispel speculation over a White House run in 2024, especially as he is about to headline an event in Nebraska City on Sunday to celebrate agriculture with other potential GOP candidates.

Wisdom of the Crowd

The early odds in the 2024 US presidential winner’s market sees President Biden edging former President Trump by 2¢ at 8 a.m. EDT this morning with the former trading at 28¢ to the latter’s 26¢. Vice President Harris is third at 17¢ and DeSantis fourth at 11¢. Meanwhile, the market tracking which party will win the 2024 US presidential election suggests the Democrats hold a slight edge at 53¢ to 48¢. Though, the last 25 days or so show a slight price decline for the Democratic contract as Biden’s approval ratings have sunk.

Odds of Trump declaring his intention to run in 2024 by filing before the end of 2022 were a penny shy of 50¢ on Sept. 7. While trading now at 45¢, his contract opened the month of September at 38¢ — just 2¢ above the 90-day low from June 15.

The market tracking the 2024 Republican presidential nomination has become less of a mystery since Trump overtook DeSantis in mid-July and the former president now holds a 16¢ lead over the Florida governor — 39¢ to 23¢. The two market favorites are the only two contracts in the market trading in double digits. Nikki Haley is best of the rest at 7¢ followed by Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Tim Scott (R-SC) as well as South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R) at 5¢.

DeSantis’ contract in the 2024 Republican presidential nomination market has really been hit this summer as COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations surged in the Sunshine State. Over the last 90-days, Republicans’ second favorite candidate had in fact led Trump over three different spells beginning on June 24 and ending July 13.

The story of decline for DeSantis can also be seen in the 2022 Florida governor’s race, but this time at the beginning of August. Here, DeSantis’ contract dipped from 81¢ on Aug. 1 to a 90-day low of 69¢ on Aug. 13. His contract has since gained 5¢ to trade at 74¢ this morning. As DeSantis dropped, Rep. Charlie Crist (D-FL) rose from 10¢ to 22¢ over the same period before settling in at 18¢. Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, the only Democrat elected to state-wide office in Florida, also saw her odds rise — hitting 18¢ on Aug. 5 — and is now trading around the 13¢ mark.

Shifting gears to the other side of the aisle, we find the president looking to bounce back a bit in the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination market. He leads Vice President Kamala Harris 38¢ to 31¢ — with the Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg a distant third at 9¢. Biden’s contract has recently been on the up — gaining 3¢ over the past 4 days — after a rough August that saw an 8¢ decline as the Afghanistan roll out faltered.

• What will be the margin in the California gubernatorial recall election?
• What will be the margin in Boston’s preliminary mayoral election?
• How many seats will the Conservatives win in Canada’s next election?
• What will Biden’s RCP job approval index be for Sept. 15?

With every news cycle the markets shift on PredictIt and so too can the odds. Here are five articles worth a read:

• GOP Rep. Liz Cheney tells Trump ‘Bring it’ after ex-president endorses primary challenger in Wyoming — CNBC
• House Dems begin moving parts of Biden $3.5T domestic plans — Associated Press
• Biden withdraws nomination of gun-control advocate for ATF — Bloomberg
• Democratic leaders betting Manchin will back down in spending fight — The Hill
• Justin Trudeau's last chance — Politico

We are always crowdsourcing new market ideas from traders. Send ideas to [email protected] and be sure to include a legitimate resolution source.

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Team @PredictIt

Featured section news and analysis sources include: Bloomberg (1 and 2), The Hill, The New York Post, Politico (1 and 2), ABC News, Newsweek (1 and 2), The Atlantic and Emerson College Polling.