UK Local Elections Today are Likely to Give Insight Into Voters’ Mood Toward Johnson’s Rule

lmost 7,000 council seats, including all those in London, Scotland and Wales, and a third of the seats in most of the rest of England are up for grabs today as voters head to the polls to elect their local governments.

Those votes are expected to deliver a verdict of sorts on the performance and mood towards British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Conservative government. Johnson has been engulfed by scandal for months and came close to being ousted by members of his Conservative Party in February.

Johnson is facing an uphill battle, given his Tories have trailed the Labour Party in most polls this year and are currently about six percentage points behind. Local election results also typically deliver losses for ruling parties, especially if they’ve been in power for 12 years as the Tories have. That’s because voters use the polls — which are ostensibly about issues such as potholes and trash pickups — to send the government a broader message.

Yet the stakes are higher for Johnson this time. While the focus on the Ukraine crisis has taken some of the pressure off the prime minister, some Tory members of Parliament are still looking for proof he’s the vote winner they want leading into the next general election due by 2024. ElectoralCalculus on Tuesday predicted the ruling party will shed 548 councilors in England and Wales, and lose control of seven councils.

If there was a silver lining in that prediction it is that it is far lower than its earlier prediction of an 800-seat loss. According to John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, a debacle on that scale is unlikely to materialize because of which areas are in play.

Johnson is unlikely to face a move to replace him based on losses in the low hundreds, though the threat will be not be over. His government is battling perceptions it is not doing enough to help Britons cope with inflation at a three-decade high and the biggest fall in living standards since the 1950s. That comes on top of the “partygate” scandal, which has seen both Johnson and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak fined by the police for breaking the coronavirus lockdown laws they brought in. The prime minister potentially faces more penalties as authorities continue their probe into gatherings in Downing Street.

Trade the Markets: How Boris’ party does in the so-called Red Wall areas that switched from Labour in 2019 could be crucial to his long-term success. Proving he can hold onto those predominantly northern areas that handed the Tories a large parliamentary majority would be a major boost. Traders are confident that Johnson will continue to ride his luck and remain in power through May — a 98¢ probability — and beyond through August — an 86¢ probability.

What’s more, Johnson’s contract in the market tracking which European leader will leave office next is now second best to Italy’s Mario Draghi — 27¢ to 19¢. That is a far cry from the 52¢ his contract was trading in early February as the “partygate” scandal threatened his premiership.

Johnson also trails Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro in the next G20 leader out market. The Brazilian president faces a trip to the polls in October and is priced at 52¢, while Johnson’s contract sits at 14¢. This suggests that Johnson could be potentially safe through the majority of 2022. That’s saying something after the harrowing days of February.

House Democratic Leadership Still Behind Cuellar in Texas’ 28th

onday’s leaked draft Supreme Court ruling pertaining to Roe v. Wade has thrown a late curveball into progressive efforts to unseat incumbent Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) in a Texas Democratic primary runoff. Cuellar is known by many as the last pro-life Democrat in Congress, while his progressive primary opponent Jessica Cisneros, on the other hand, has been forcefully in favor of abortion rights, earning her the support of national abortion-rights groups. The Texas standoff also takes place in a state that earlier this year enacted the strictest abortion ban in the country — a law known as Senate Bill 8.

But just a day after Democrats forcefully recommitted to protecting abortion rights, Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), the third-ranking Democratic leader in the House, headed down to Texas to defend and stand side-by-side with Cuellar in what is easily the toughest re-election fight of his 17 years in office.

Experts and political watchers point out that Cuellar has had to walk a fine line on the abortion issue given the district’s large socially conservative, Roman Catholic population. The district, like many across the Lone Star State, is experiencing ideological and demographic changes. Cuellar’s strength lies in the southern portion of the district toward Laredo, while Cisneros has performed well in the northern portion of the district toward San Antonio. Prior to Monday’s leak, the flow of migrants from the US southern border and in particular, the Biden administration’s move to lift Title 42, had been a major focal point of the campaign.

Trade the Markets: The 8th District’s Democratic primary runoff is set to take place on May 24, marking the culmination of a tight race that has drawn national attention. Less than three week’s out, Cuellar is the market favorite to beat Cisneros in the runoff, 59¢ to 42¢. The two candidates have traded the top spot on multiple occasions over the last three months and Monday’s news saw Cisneros gain 6¢ to close at 40¢. A potential worrying trend for Cuellar contract holders is that since hitting a market high of 69¢ on April 26, his contract has trended downward, while Cisneros has gained 9¢ in the same period.

Georgia Governor’s Race Cash Battle Sharpens with Abrams Figure Released

eorgia Democrat and gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams announced Wednesday that her campaign had brought in $11.7 million in the three months ending April 30. Abrams is running unopposed in the May 24 primary election for her party’s nomination and said that she had more than $8 million in cash on hand. Having ended January with $7.2 million, the figures suggest that her campaign had spent almost all of the huge sum.

This could be problematic heading down the stretch for Abrams, who has less cash on hand than the $10.7 million that Kemp has. He raised $2.7 million during the period, hampered by a state law that prohibits sitting officeholders from accepting contributions while state lawmakers were meeting. Kemp raised his money in the 26 days following the April 4 end of the session. Kemp is engaged in a contentious primary battle with former Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) for the Republican nomination.

Perdue has not yet disclosed his fundraising and spending for the period. The challenger has struggled to tap the same network of big donors that sustained his two Senate runs, despite his endorsement by former President Donald Trump. After having less than $1 million in cash on hand at the end of January, Perdue hinted he would crack his own $50 million fortune to try to keep up with Kemp’s spending.

Trade the Markets: Kemp holds a commanding lead over Perdue in the market tracking the GOP nomination race for Georgia’s governor’s mansion — 91¢ to 9¢. As the May 24 primary date has drawn closer, Perdue’s challenge has wilted with his contract down 12¢ over the past month while Kemp’s has risen as high as 93¢ over the same period. With Abrams unopposed, her contract sits at 99¢ in the Democratic nomination market.

The overall race favors Republicans at 75¢ to 29¢ this morning with the last 30 days seeing a 4¢ bump for the generic GOP candidate contract while the Democratic equivalent is down 3¢. That said, the last seven days has favored Democrats, though much of that has to do with the Republican contract retreating from a 90-day high of 80¢.

• Who will win the Democratic nomination in the NC-01 House election?
• Who will win the Republican nomination in the NC-01 House election?
• Which party will lead in 538 Congressional generic ballot polling for May 11?
• What will Joe Biden's 538 job approval rating be for May 11?

With every news cycle the markets shift on PredictIt and so too can the odds. Here are five articles worth a read:

• Cisneros calls out House Democratic leadership for supporting anti-abortion Cuellar — Politico
• Attacks dominate Pennsylvania’s Senate GOP primary debate — Associated Press
• New Ohio map leaves Chabot, Kaptur facing tough races this fall — Roll Call
• Biden is close to the point of no return with Americans on the economy — CNN Politics
• Cawthorn calls nude tape ‘blackmail’ — The Hill

We are always crowdsourcing new market ideas from traders. Send ideas to [email protected] and be sure to include a legitimate resolution source.

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Team @PredictIt

Featured section news and analysis sources include: The Guardian (UK), The Hill, NBC News, Bloomberg, BBC and Associated Press (1 and 2).