s discussed yesterday, the Democrats may have their own problems, especially when it comes to convincing moderate Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WY) and Krysten Sinema (D-AZ) to get on board with legislative priorities. The two moderates have so far objected to such initiatives as increases in the corporate tax rate, a federal minimum wage and adding the District of Columbia as the 51st state. But the problems facing the party in power, seem to pale in comparison to the “tug-o-war” that is engulfing the Republican Party.

At the center of the debate lies the highest ranked woman in the GOP, Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), who also happens to be the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney.

On Monday, Cheney shot back at former President Donald Trump over his claims that the 2020 election was stolen, accusing those who spread the claim of “poisoning our democratic system.”

Cheney’s tweet came in response to a statement earlier Monday morning from Trump, who called President Biden's victory in the November 2020 election “the big lie.”

Trump fired back at Cheney later in the day with a statement saying:

The internal acrimony reflects the extraordinary sway that Trump holds over the party even after his election defeat. Although cloistered in Florida and banned from Twitter, the former president remains enormously popular among the GOP’s conservative base, and his promise to stay active in future elections — and go after anyone deemed insufficiently loyal — has sent an explicit message to Republican leaders: defy him at your own risk.

The debate over Cheney’s future is also part of a broader GOP reckoning over the direction of the party in the wake of Trump’s presidency. It’s a conversation that’s splintered traditionalist Republicans from a new brand of populists and sitting members from former colleagues, who are more free to assess Trump frankly without fear of political backlash.

Cheney is one of 10 House Republicans to have voted to impeach Trump for inciting a mob to attack the Capitol and interfere with the counting of the Electoral College results on Jan. 6. After her vote against him, Trump vowed to endorse any Republican primary candidate against Cheney in the upcoming 2022 midterm elections.

The Wyoming GOP voted to censure her and several ardent Trump allies in Congress called for her to be removed from power as chairwoman of the House Republican Conference. With Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) vocal backing, Cheney prevailed under secret ballot by a tally of 145-61 — a landslide victory suggesting that the bulk of the conference agreed with her judgments of Trump, but were just not willing to do it publicly.

While Cheney has received the backing of the McCarthy and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) at one point in time, the overall dynamics in the House — where more than half the GOP conference voted to overturn the presidential results — are much different than those of the Senate. There’s hasn’t been a call from Republican senators to oust McConnell, who accused Trump of inciting the Jan. 6 rampage at the Capitol in a fiery speech from the Senate floor in February.

The heat has been slowly increasing with Monday’s tit-for-tat exchange with Trump just the latest event in what is quickly becoming a contentious topic. Cheney has amplified the harsh critiques of the president in recent days, clashing with other GOP leaders who are eager to unite the fractured party by winning Trump’s good graces heading into the 2022 elections.

Just last week, during the Republicans’ annual strategy conference, Cheney made waves by saying the GOP’s congressional leaders — not Trump — are commanding the party. She also broke with McCarthy in calling for an independent investigation into the Jan. 6 attack focused squarely on that event. Two days later, she raised more eyebrows when she fist-bumped President Joe Biden on the House floor as he made his way down the aisle for his first address to a joint session of Congress.

Cheney’s willingness to buck other GOP leaders has given plenty of talking points to Democrats fighting to hold the House in 2022 — and infuriated a growing number of her GOP colleagues, including many who had voted in February to keep her as the party’s conference chair but are now singing a very different tune.

Some Republican insiders are predicting Cheney won’t survive the month, though it’s so far unclear when another vote to remove Cheney from leadership might emerge. The House is on recess and doesn’t come back into session until May 12, but GOP lawmakers say they anticipate they will hold a closed-door, secret-ballot vote to boot Cheney from leadership once they return to Washington. The insiders don’t believe McCarthy will stand by and defend Cheney this time. Republicans who attended both the Orlando gathering last week and a separate House GOP campaign retreat over the weekend said there was a “ton of chatter” about Cheney’s future.

Wisdom of the Crowd

Launched just yesterday, the market tracking whether or not Liz Cheney will be House Republican Conference Chair on Sept. 1 is garnering trader attention. At 38¢, traders early sense of the situation is that Cheney’s odds of staying in her leadership position aren’t great. The market high so far is 58¢, after the fourth hour of trading. But since hitting that level, traders have shifted Cheney’s odds downward to a point that a market low of 25¢ was established.

Cheney’s odds mirror those of Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) who has his own set of problems — his contract price for being on the Judiciary Committee on Sept. 1 is 39¢ at 6:30 a.m. EDT.

In the 2022 House GOP nomination for Wyoming’s at-large seat, traders are down on Cheney’s odds of winning. Over the past 24 hours, the congresswoman’s share price in a yes outcome fell 7¢ — the single biggest price drop in the last 90 days of trading. Yesterday’s drop in price also means a new market low at close has been set at 39¢. Another 2¢ have been knocked off the contract price as of writing.

Traders aren't high on two other congressmen who’ve drawn the ire of Trump either. Rep Anthony Gonzales (R-OH) and Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) are both underwater in the markets tracking their re-election efforts next year. Traders have Gonzalez’s odds slightly higher than Kinzinger at 35¢ to 31¢ for a yes outcome.

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With every news cycle the markets shift on PredictIt and so too can the odds. Here are five articles worth a read:

• Rep. Liz Cheney's role as GOP conference chair facing renewed jeopardy amid Trump feud — Fox News
• Cheney: ‘Wishful thinking’ by Trump she won’t seek 4th term — Associated Press
• The pro-Trump Republican trying to upstage Cheney — Politico
• Who would pay Biden’s corporate tax increase is key question in policy debate — Wall Street Journal
• Democrats confront difficult prospects for midterms — The Hill

We are always crowdsourcing new market ideas from traders. Send ideas to [email protected] and be sure to include a legitimate resolution source.

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

Featured section news and analysis sources include: Politico, The Hill (1 and 2) Axios and Associated Press.