Le Débat, Pt. Deux: Macron-Le Pen Fail to Land Knock Outs

ednesday night’s debate rematch between French President Emmanuel Macron and National Rally leader Marine Le Pen ahead of the second-round presidential vote on Sunday was always going to be different than the 2017 version.

Le Pen has spent the past five years softening her image, sharpening her policies and learning her dossiers. Macron, meanwhile, no longer needed to present his credentials, but to defend his performance in office. Some 15.6 million viewers watched the long and rather technical head-to-head battle during which both candidates confirmed their positions on key issues, from tech startups to the European Union. No knockout blows were delivered and no obvious winner emerged. Both were careful to avoid reaching the hostility of their previous encounter in 2017.

There were no big surprises and the debate appeared unlikely to change a trend that has seen the president’s advantage in polls steadily widen to nearly 12 points over Le Pen. Macron said Sunday’s vote will be a referendum on the European Union, French-German relations and climate policies. Last time out, he was a political novelty promising to tear down the establishment. This time he has a track record and his rival attacked it with relish.

Le Pen insisted the French will be better off on purchasing power and security under her governance, calling Macron a “Mozart of Finance,” a moniker that has followed him since his days as an investment banker. She also said that France has become a dangerous place for people with any kind of wealth and criticized the jump in government borrowing during the pandemic and Macron’s plans to raise the retirement age to 65 by 2030.

During one of the more tense moments of the night, Macron lashed out at his rival for conflating Islam, security and terrorism and said her plans to ban the veil in all public spaces would trigger violent unrest. “What you propose is a betrayal of the French spirit,” he said. After a disastrous debate performance derailed her chances in the last election, Le Pen was markedly more prepared this time around and largely appeared more moderate, until the discussion about Islam.

A snap poll of 650 adults by Elabe for BFMTV found Macron was judged to be more convincing by 59% of viewers, while some 39% said Le Pen was more convincing.

With just four days to go until the French decide between two radically different visions for their future, opinion polls show there are still many undecided voters and both candidates are targeting the supporters of far-left candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who finished just behind Le Pen in the first round with 7.7 million votes. Shortly after that vote, Mélenchon urged his supporters not to vote for Le Pen, but also didn’t endorse Macron. He wasn’t offering them any further guidance on Wednesday.

Wisdom of the Crowd

Macron’s contract in the 2022 French presidential election winner market stayed steady on Wednesday as it closed at 92¢ for the third straight day and up 3¢ over the past week. Le Pen’s contract lost 2¢ on the day as it fell from 10¢ and is down 3¢ over the last seven days. The crowd remains confident that Macron will be able to pull out the victory on Sunday, even if the race does end up being closer than the incumbent might prefer.

But for now, the crowd doesn’t think that will be likely, though it also doesn’t think it will be a blowout like 2017’s results where Macron nearly doubled up Le Pen’s voter percentage and won more than 10 million more votes. The top contract in the second round margin of victory market remains “more than or equal to 13%” at 46¢ and has led since launch on Monday, April 18 when it opened at 33¢. The next most likely outcome suggests a small drop in performance, but a big drop in price with “12% or 13%” at 12¢ followed by “11% or 12%” at 11¢. And as of 6 a.m. EDT this morning, the crowd can be seen with a small hedge position on the race being a whole lot closer than the polls suggest with the lowest contract of “less than 3%” up 2¢ to 6¢ and a tie for sixth most likely outcome out of 12 contracts.

The final market tracking Macron’s fate — the next European leader out market — the French president now sits in sixth position out of 10 leaders at 5¢ this morning. That marks a 20¢ drop from his three month high of 25¢ set on April 9 — just one day before the first round of the presidential vote. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson continues to lead at 24¢, while Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Draghi remains in second at 18¢.

Minnesota Readies to Jump the Line in 2024

embers of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) voted earlier this month to open up the 2024 presidential primary calendar, upending the current order with Iowa and New Hampshire leading off. The decision has set off a scramble among state party leaders to consider applying for one of the slots, an influential perch that guarantees outsized spending and attention from national candidates and the press.

One of the states hoping to make a move up the list of early primary states is Minnesota. According to Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party Chair Ken Martin, the state party will be submitting a letter of intent as part of the DNC’s new process to reorder its primary calendar.

The DNC is requiring states to submit letters of intent by May 6, followed by a formal application on June 3. State parties will also make presentations to the committee during a meeting in late June, after which the committee will have six weeks to make its recommendations on a new early state lineup.

The DNC wants to maintain regional diversity in its early state window, and Minnesota is likely to compete for a slot reserved for a Midwestern state, currently occupied by Iowa. The Hawkeye State has come under harsh criticism for its handling of the 2020 Democratic caucuses and its lack of racial diversity, which means it will have a more difficult case to make to maintain its first-in-the-nation status. Another Midwestern state eyeing early state status is Michigan, where state Democrats have indicated they are also interested in moving up.

While Minnesota isn’t a top-tier battleground state like Michigan, it is becoming increasingly competitive, especially in down-ballot races. It is also one of the few Midwestern states that’s not a “right to work” state, with a long tradition of labor union participation.

Wisdom of the Crowd

After jumping to 23¢ on April 17, Minnesota’s contract in the market tracking which state will hold the first Democratic presidential primary for the 2024 nominee has fallen back down to 13¢. That puts the Gopher State into fourth place at the moment as part of a second tier of contracts in the market — with South Carolina at 8¢, followed by Iowa and New Jersey at 3¢ each.

Up at the top of the table is New Hampshire, which has wobbled as of late — falling 20¢ between April 12 and 15, but remains the favorite at 47¢. Nevada and Michigan are the other contracts that the crowd thinks have a good chance of beating New Hampshire to top primary billing — pricing their “yes” outcomes at 39¢ and 34¢, respectively.

• Who will win the most seats in the 2022 Slovenian parliamentary election?
• How many votes for candidates in the French presidential election second round?
• Which party will lead in FiveThirtyEight Congressional generic ballot polling for April 27?
• What will Joe Biden’s FiveThirtyEight job approval rating be for April 27?

With every news cycle the markets shift on PredictIt and so too can the odds. Here are five articles worth a read:

• Five states that could take Iowa’s spot on the early primary calendar — The Hill
• Macron-Le Pen debate: key moments in the French election head-to-head — The Guardian (UK)
• White House sees strong GDP growth in 2022 despite additional economic risks — CNBC
• Biden’s dismal poll numbers imperil Democrat’s Senate control — Politico
• Billionaire Thiel deepens JD Vance bet with $3.5 million after Trump backing — Bloomberg

We are always crowdsourcing new market ideas from traders. Send ideas to [email protected] and be sure to include a legitimate resolution source.

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Team @PredictIt

Featured section news and analysis sources include: Politico, Financial Times (1, 2 and 3), Elabe (FRA), Bloomberg (1 and 2) and Axios.