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WRU: “Partygate,” French Polls, a Court Decision and Oklahoma’s Senate Seat
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“Partygate” is About to Heat Up This Week
ritish Prime Minister Boris Johnson is readying himself for a hectic 48 hours of House of Commons action as Members of Parliament (MPs) return from the Easter recess on Tuesday. MPs are expected to hold the prime minister to account after he was fined by police last week for attending a gathering on the prime minister’s birthday in June 2020, breaching Covid-19 laws the government had passed.
The fine aside, MPs will be returning to fresh reports from The Sunday Times that state a Downing Street gathering took on the nature of a coronavirus lockdown-breaking party only after Johnson arrived and started pouring drinks. Johnson is facing three more fines over “partygate,” as it has been dubbed by the British media, including the aforementioned event he attended to mark the departure of Lee Cain, his communications director, in November 2020.
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The newspaper’s account is the latest allegation in the “partygate” saga and sparked further criticism from the opposition Labour Party.
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“If the latest reports are true, it would mean that not only did the prime minister attend parties, but he had a hand in instigating at least one of them. He has deliberately misled the British people at every turn,” said Angela Rayner, deputy Labour leader.
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Johnson is expected to make a statement to Parliament on Tuesday about the fine, where he will apologize for breaking the rules but insist he was not aware he had done so, the Telegraph reported. Lawmakers will focus on whether the prime minister misled parliament, a resigning matter, when he previously said parties did not take place at Downing Street and that COVID-19 rules were followed at all times.
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Six Days Until France’s Presidential Second Round Vote
rench people will on Sunday choose between incumbent Emmanuel Macron and far-right Marine Le Pen to lead their country for the next five years. Le Pen has over the past weeks steadily reduced Macron’s lead in opinion polls. According to an Ifop poll conducted for the Journal du Dimanche, Macron’s approval rating fell to 41% in April, down from 42% a month earlier.
The upside for the incumbent is that he is polling higher than his predecessors, Francois Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy, did at the same point in their tenures. And another poll, conducted Ipsos-Sopra Steria, suggested that Macron would beat Le Pen 55.5%-44.5% in next weekend’s French presidential runoff.
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One of the key questions left to be answered is what will happen to those voters who voted for far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon in the first round. The poll showed that 33% of those voters would likely back Macron on April 24, up from 28% in Friday’s poll, while an unchanged 16% would vote for Le Pen, with the rest sitting out the final round.
Trade the Markets: Macron continues to hold a commanding lead over Le Pen in the market tracking the winner of this year’s French presidential election at 90¢ to 11¢. His contract has gained 6¢ since the first round on April 10 and 18¢ since hitting a 30-day low just two days before voters went to the polls. Le Pen, meanwhile, has seen 17¢ wiped off of her 90-day high of 28¢ achieved on April 9.
Keep an eye out for today’s new margin of victory market that we just launched!
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Wisconsin’s Supreme Court Performs a U-Turn on Legislative Map
he Wisconsin Supreme Court on Friday adopted Republican-drawn maps for the state Legislature, handing the GOP a victory just weeks after initially approving maps drawn by Gov. Tony Evers (D). Evers’ map created seven majority-Black state Assembly districts in Milwaukee, up from the current six. The map from the Republican-controlled Legislature had just five.
The court reversed itself after the US Supreme Court in March said Evers’ maps were incorrectly adopted, and came just as candidates were about to begin circulating nominating papers to appear on this year’s ballot without being sure of district boundaries. Republicans hold a 61-38 majority in the Assembly and a 21-12 advantage in the Senate, but even under the GOP map that the state court initially rejected, they were not expected to gain a supermajority that could override any Evers veto. While the SCOTUS rejected Wisconsin’s legislative maps, it adopted the congressional maps as proposed by Evers — Republicans currently hold five of the state’s eight seats. That map made one of those GOP districts more competitive.
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Trump’s Former EPA Head Jumps Into Oklahoma’s Open Senate Race
epublican Scott Pruitt, a former head of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the Trump administration, filed to run for Oklahoma’s open US Senate seat on Friday, making a return to politics in a state with deep ties to the oil and gas industry.
A former state attorney general, Pruitt is seeking the seat being vacated by longtime Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK). Pruitt also served in the state Senate from 1998 to 2006 and held office for two terms as attorney general after being elected in 2010. Pruitt is one of many former Trump officials eyeing Congress as their path to return to public life. Among those running are former President Donald Trump’s first Interior secretary, Ryan Zinke, who is seeking a House seat in Montana, and State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus, who is vying for a seat in Tennessee.
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Pruitt’s decision to run came after it was reported last month that he was weighing a run, according to CBS News, making calls to gauge support in a crowded Republican primary. Already, Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), former Oklahoma Speaker of the House T.W Shannon, Inhofe’s former chief of staff Luke Holland and state Sen. Nathan Dahm are set to battle it out for the Senate seat. Former Rep. Kendra Horn is the first Democrat to enter the race.
Pruitt left his post as state attorney general to lead Trump’s anti-regulation agenda at the EPA. But his tenure was laden with ethics scandals and investigations, in which he ultimately resigned amid allegations he was trying to personally benefit from his office. Most of the department’s inspector general investigations were inconclusive, as Pruitt resigned in 2018 before the investigations were complete.
Trade the Markets: Pruitt’s contract closed on Sunday at 26¢, marking a 23¢ gain in share price over just four days in the market tracking the GOP nominee for the open Senate seat in Oklahoma. He now only trails Mullin, who has vacated his 2nd Congressional seat in eastern Oklahoma in a bid to replace the outgoing Inhofe and whose contract has led for almost the entire past three months. Mullin’s contract ended the weekend at 60¢, down 7¢ since from April 14, the day before Pruitt’s announcement.
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Markets Recently Launched
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*Market launched last Friday, April 15.
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With every news cycle the markets shift on PredictIt and so too can the odds. Here are five articles worth a read:
- GOP megadonors go big in battle for Congress: Five takeaways from new campaign money filings — Politico
- Wisconsin Democrats aim to beat Sen. Ron Johnson, but how? — Associated Press
- GOP shadow primary gains steam ahead of 2024 — The Hill
- RNC to require GOP presidential candidates to sign debate pledge — Wall Street Journal
- Macron pushes green credentials in election fight with Le Pen — Financial Times
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